Now I know how Andrej Sekera feels after a week with the flu. Yuck. Maybe I should burn my bedsheets, too…
After a weekend where the Sabres played as badly as I felt, I don’t have too much to say as I didn’t watch the games. However, I do have some Water Cooler points for you all to discuss.
1. If Timmy Kennedy keeps this up, could he possibly make Sabres fans forget Chris Drury in a couple years?
2. And while we’re on that topic, does Nathan Gerbe remind anyone else of a certain other co-captain?
3. What is/was Adam Mair’s true value to this team?
4. Is it just me, or does Lindy Ruff seem to have a new focus this season?
5. Buy or Sell: Mark Mancari has a future in this league, just with another team.
That should be enough to get you through the week. Feel free to post your thoughts and get a dialogue started.
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The Philadlephia Flyers came into Buffalo Thursday night with a severely injury depleted line up, and many players suffering the effects of the flu.
Tonight in their game versus Buffalo it looked like Buffalo was the team struggling with sickness the Flyers dominated the entire game on route to a 5-2 thrashing of the Sabres.
The first period was played somewhat competitively by both teams.Then with less than two minutes remaining in the first Daniel Carcillo put the visitors up 1-0 going into the locker room.
The second saw a an out burst of goals. Unfortunately for Buffalo most were scored against them. Chris Pronger got it started early with a seeing eyed shot past Ryan Miller to widen the margin. But on the power play less than four minutes later Derek Roy made the best of a broken play to net Buffalo’s first goal of the night.
It was rookie James Van Riemsdyk who re-captured the two goal lead for Philly as 14 minutes into the second he netted his third of the season, bringing the score to 3-1. That is how the period would end
The third period was no real prize for Buffalo as tentative play again was the special of the night. Darroll Powe took advantage of a give away by Buffalo in the offensive zone, to net his fourth of the year, and again widen the margin to three goals for Philadelphia.
Buffalo then would take advantage on the power play as Tyler Myers one timed a shot from the point past goaltender Ray Emery to try and give Buffalo some life. But it was all for not. As Philadelphia would seal the deal with an empty net goal late in the game to win going away 5-2.
Thoughts and observations from tonight embarrassment.
The lack of effort as an entire team tonight by the Sabres still has me wondering if this team has truly turned this magical corner that everyone is talking about. It seems far too often the offense lacks consistency, and scoring to be considered a team that is ready to take that next step.
The defense was out muscled, and intimidated. Yes there are young players on the blue line, but you have three veterans that need to stand up and take accountability for their actions. Goaltender Ryan Miller again is going to have to watch the traffic in front of the net, as the defense has forgotten how to remove forwards from his area.
Jason Pominville said it perfect in a post game press conference. “We were out worked in every way tonight” Very true Jason my question is, What are you and the rest of the forwards going to do about it?
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These days, a lot of hockey blogs have been posting about the Corsi Number. This is a number that compares all shots directed at goal (shots on net, missed shots, blocked shots) for and against a player. A positive number indicates that a player has directed more pucks at the net than have been directed against his own net. A negative number… um, well, I won’t insult your intelligence.
One point to keep in mind is that this number is only calculated during a five-on-five situation. Therefore, the Sabres’ power play struggles have no bearing on this metric. Otherwise, this works a lot like the plus/minus rating, except your using shots instead of goals. Now, I’ll end the suspense and reveal the team’s top 3 leaders in the Corsi Number (according to the blog Diebytheblade.com) through the month of October:
1.) Drew Stafford – +39 2.) Steve Montador – +33 3.) Tim Kennedy – +32
Huh?
Wait, let’s take a look at the bottom three on the team. Without further ado:
22.) Tim Connolly – (-)12 21.) Chris Butler – (-)6 20.) Jason Pominville – (-)1
Double Huh?
For completion sake, I’d like to add that I did not include Daniel Paille, who, after two games, was a -3. That aside, does this mean that our leading scorer is our least effective player?
There are some who dismiss this number due to a team’s style of play (Detroit’s shot totals are always among the league leaders) or the very nature of the player (someone like Ovechkin or Malkin who shoots a lot should have a high number).
And since power play shots are not included, how can you get an accurate gauge of someone like Vanek or Connolly that play on the team’s first power play unit? Let’s take a look at the four Sabres who have scored on the power play this year:
Tim Connolly – 3 ppg, -12 Corsi
Drew Stafford – 3 ppg, +39 Corsi
Jason Pominville – 2 ppg, -1 Corsi
Thomas Vanek – 1 ppg, +12 Corsi
A final nail in the coffin for the overall effectiveness of the Corsi Number: The Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins ranked 21st in the league in Corsi Number last season. In fact, only 11 of 16 playoff teams last year had a positive Corsi.
That means that only 68 percent of the time does a positive Corsi number indicate a playoff berth (one more note: only 14 teams had a positive rating). There are many more arguments against it, but I think that the point is clear; the Corsi number has its flaws.
So why bring it up, you ask? Because I believe that it is an excellent indicator of the strength of a team’s third and fourth lines, the lines that rarely get power play time and are usually up against an opponent’s top line. Let us examine the Sabres’ third and fourth lines:
Third line: Hecht – +2 Corsi Kennedy – +32 Corsi Grier – +13 Corsi
Fourth line: Ellis – +19 Corsi Gaustad – +24 Corsi Kaleta – +20 Corsi
Sabres goaltending coach Jim Corsi is credited with developing this statistic during the NHL lockout. The same NHL lockout in which Lindy Ruff developed his ideal system of play, the system of play that the Sabres are sticking to this season, even when they are losing (yes, even during the Islanders game).
Thanks again to Diebytheblade.com for the Sabres Corsi statistics. I should also note that I got the 2008-2009 Team Corsi numbers from KulasKorner.com.
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Here’s my top three animal deaths over the past 35 years. I couldn’t pick one over the other…you be the judge.
Sabres‘ Jim Lorentz Bat-Fog Game – 1975
Considered by many at the time an evil omen, in game three of the 1974/75 Stanley Cup Finals, Jim Lorentz swatted a bat out of the air with his stick. Later that game would later be known as the fog game for the ridiculously thick fog due to an unusually hot Buffalo May.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvzp32zYtCY
Randy Johnson Hits Bird With Pitch – 2001
What are the odds a bird, or dove, whatever it was flies into a 100 mph Johnson pitch or the other way around? Will we ever see this again? Allegedly there was a seagull hit in the minors, Buffalo go figure. And there was another video of German Michael Ballack hitting a bird in shooting practice before a match.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WF85R1em7Zs
Manu Ginobili Kills the Bat – 2009
Halloween night + bat + AT&T Center + Manu = another dead bat! Unlike Lorentz, Ginobili swatted the bat out of the air with his bare hands, picks it up and passes it to some poor donk on the baseline.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1DpjBEwekE
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Ryan Miller wanted nothing more then to put last Saturday night’s 5-0 drubbing at the hands of the New York Islanders behind him.
Tonight as the scene shifted back to Western New York, Miller and company came out and played with a purpose for 60 minutes. The result: a 3-0 beat down of the Islanders and former Buffalo goaltender Martin Biron.
Since leaving the Sabres, Biron has virtually owned the Buffalo Sabres, winning consistently with either team he has played for since his departure from the Sabres in 2006.
But tonight was Buffalo’s night as forward Derek Roy got the monkey off his back, netting his first goal of the year. And Thomas Vanek contributed to the offense as well, as he followed in Roy’s footsteps and netted one of his own.
The game was as complete of a game as Buffalo has played in probably two full seasons. The forwards all chipped on both sides and created quality scoring chances, while the defense kept the Islanders’ quality scoring chances to a bare minimum.
It is that kind of play that is only going to help keep goaltender Ryan Miller fresh and not facing a firing squad night in and night out. Buffalo has Thursday off as they prepare for the hated Philadelphia Flyers to invade HSBC arena on Friday night.
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It may only be 12 games into the new NHL season, but you can notice the difference in these Buffalo Sabres. Looking at the roster is deceptive. There are only four different names on this year’s list, but they have completely re-energized this team. How?
They stick to the system.
Much has been made in the local media of head coach Lindy Ruff’s summer foray with the Canadian national team in terms of absorbing everything he could from coaches Mike Babcock and Jacques Lemaire, two proven winners.
It is being said that, due to his proximity to two Stanley Cup-winning coaches, he had tweaked his system to adapt to the next phase of the NHL.
Here’s the part that most people don’t realize: Ruff hasn’t changed his system. He just found new ears.
An alert observant with a good memory will realize that this is the same system that Ruff put into place after the lockout: two tape-to-tape passes in the neutral zone followed by gritty corner work and sweeping in the garbage in front of the net.
On the defensive side, keep the feet moving and the net clear of both players and pucks; just like the ’05-’06 Sabres that crept up on the league and were one period away from the Stanley Cup Finals.
Watch out, NHL. It’s happening again.
And the Sabres have four unheralded, yet genius (thus far) personnel moves to thank for it.
Steve Montador
Montador contributes unspectacular, but consistently above-average play in his own zone. He keeps all but the most talented forwards away from goalie Ryan Miller.
Tyler Myers
This kid has replaced Terrell Owens as Buffalo’s most welcome new neighbor. He has brought new energy and skills to the Sabres and has Henrik Tallinder playing like “Hank” again.
Tim Kennedy
There is no doubt how much this kid wants to win every shift. Having grown up in Buffalo, he knows how much Buffalonians love that work ethic. The Hecht-Kennedy-Grier line is consistently the best line of the night.
Mike Grier
It’s no coincidence that his last year with the Sabres (’05-’06) was the last year that everyone on the team played to Ruff’s vision.
He was brought in to provide a backbone and a locker room voice. He has brought Hecht back from the ugly side of “stink” and has Kennedy playing like a seven-year vet.
It appears that every other player on the roster is afraid to cross Grier if they are caught abandoning the game plan.
Want more proof? Which Sabres team is better: the 6-1-1 team that began last year or the 7-2-1 team that began this year? Just ask Babcock and Lemaire. Both of their squads have already fallen to Ruff’s Sabres this year.
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